Scheduled plant outages, most importantly nuclear refueling, could be the main source of volatility in the coming months in the New York ISO (NY ISO) market, according to an analyst at Genscape.
Stefan Baden, a power market analyst who tracks the NY ISO for Genscape, noted in a March 31 blog that the New York market region is coming off a harsh winter that set a new winter peak load record of 25,738 MW on Jan. 7.
Overall, New York saw record power prices coupled with below-normal imports from the PJM and Hydro Quebec regions during the recent winter, Baden said.
Now that the ‘polar vortex’ is over, temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees below average this spring. Historically, spring has seen a decrease in PJM imports, Baden said.
The spring shoulder season will bring increased generation outages across the New York footprint, Baden said.
Several nuclear unit outages are scheduled between March and June in the Northeast, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, Genscape said.
In particular two Constellation Energy Nuclear Group (CENG) unit outages in New York could impact the NY ISO, Genscape said.
Unit 2 of the Nine Mile Point nuclear plant went offline for refueling March 23 and Genscape expects that it will conclude the outage around April 21. Nine Mile Point is located near the Syracuse load center, according to the Genscape slides.
In addition, Genscape expects the Ginna nuclear unit will go offline for refueling around April 25 and complete the refueling around May 22. Ginna is located in the vicinity of the Rochester load center.
Both plants, along with Calvert Cliffs in Maryland, recently had their nuclear licenses transferred from CENG to Exelon (NYSE:EXC). CENG is a joint venture between Exelon and EDF Group.
In addition, Genscape expects a general decrease in congestion during the shoulder months. Natural gas prices should
be reduced during the period also.
This article was republished with permission from GenerationHub.