24 June 2008 — The world market for turbines and related products (turbine-based engines, generators and generator sets) is projected to increase 4.9 percent annually to $106 billion in 2012. Growth will be driven by rising demand in the large turbine engine segment, supported by increases in aircraft manufacturing, as well as continued strength in a number of power generation markets. Growth will moderate after a decade-long boom in wind turbine demand moved these products from a niche market.
In addition, while relatively slow in percentage terms, demand for electric power generation turbines will increase $12.6 billion from 2007 levels by 2012 accounting for more than half of the increases in the total turbine market. Environmental factors will also promote sustained growth in wind generation systems, although these increases will not match the pace of the past decade. These and other trends are presented in World Turbines, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry research firm.
Growth in the large Chinese market will remain well above the global average, despite a deceleration from the double-digit annual pace of the past decade. The strongest percentage gains are expected in Mexico and the Latin America and Africa/Mideast regions, buoyed by the ongoing expansion of the highly underdeveloped power generation and aerospace sectors found in most countries. Above-average growth is also expected in India and Eastern Europe, where modernization and expansion of power generation and air carrier sectors are stimulating considerable demand for turbines. The large and developed markets in North America and Western Europe will generally not match the pace of these markets in percentage terms.
However, given the sheer size of turbine demand in these two regions, the continued growth in both will provide significant opportunities for turbine producers.
Global turbine production is centered in North America and Western Europe, which accounted for a combined 73 percent share of the total value of world shipments in 2007. The U.S. is the leading global supplier, with more than $23 billion in 2007 shipments, followed by the United Kingdom, China, France and Germany, each with over $5 billion in output. The UK, the U.S. and Denmark are the largest net exporters of turbine products, with Denmark’s surplus consisting almost entirely of wind turbines.