The gas turbine-powered electrical generation market is projected to generate $118.4 billion in revenues in the decade 2005-2014 with the production of 7,550 machines, according to Forecast International’s “The Gas Turbine Electrical Power Generation Market: 2005-2014.”
“Production of gas turbine machines, and their value of production, is projected to peak in 2010-2011,” said David J. Franus, Forecast International Senior Analyst for Power Systems/Turbomachinery. “The overall market leaders (outside the Russian Federation) in terms of the production of gas turbine machines (excluding microturbines) are projected to be GE Energy, Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Siemens. Siemens’ position has increased dramatically due to its acquisition of a large part of the Alstom line of gas turbine machines.”
Worldwide orders for gas turbine machines for electrical generation of 1 MW and larger grew from about 800 machines in 1986/1987 to 875 in 1998/1999. The trend continued into 1999/2000, when 1,200 machines were ordered, and 2000/2001, when about 1,540 machines were ordered. Orders then fell off over the next two years to about 840 and 600 machines, respectively. Orders in the 2003/2004 period totaled about 700 machines, about equal to Forecast International’s projection for the 2004/2005 period.
“Regional demand for electricity has shifted somewhat over the past several years,” said Franus. “In 1990, North America represented 30.9 percent of the worldwide demand for electricity, but consumed 30.8 percent of the electricity generated in 2000, and is forecast to consume 26.5 percent in 2020.” According to the report, the big user is, and will continue to be, the Asia/Pacific region, which accounted for 21 percent of demand in 1990 and 28 percent in 2000, and will represent 35 percent of world demand in 2020.
Of the 7,550 machines projected to be manufactured during the next 10 years, machines of 125 MW and larger should account for more than 30 percent of unit production and over 70 percent of value of production.
Forecast International Inc. is a leading provider of market intelligence and analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn. Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments utilized by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations and governments worldwide.