1 June 2005 – The gas turbine-powered electrical generation market is projected to generate $118.4bn in revenues in the decade 2005-2014 with the production of 7550 machines, according to Forecast International’s “The Gas Turbine Electrical Power Generation Market: 2005-2014.”
“Production of gas turbine machines, and their value of production, is projected to peak in 2010-2011,” said David J. Franus, Forecast International Senior Analyst for Power Systems/Turbomachinery. “The overall market leaders (outside the Russian Federation) in terms of the production of gas turbine machines (excluding microturbines) are projected to be GE Energy, Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Siemens. Siemens’ position has increased dramatically due to its acquisition of a large part of the Alstom line of gas turbine machines.”
Worldwide orders for gas turbine machines for electrical generation of 1 MW and larger grew from about 800 machines in 1986/1987 to 875 in 1998/1999. The trend continued into 1999/2000, when 1200 machines were ordered, and 2000/2001, when about 1540 machines were ordered. Orders then fell off over the next two years to about 840 and 600 machines, respectively. Orders in the 2003/2004 period totalled about 700 machines, about equal to Forecast International’s projection for the 2004/2005 period.
“Regional demand for electricity has shifted somewhat over the past several years,” said Franus. “In 1990, North America represented 30.9 per cent of the worldwide demand for electricity, but consumed 30.8 per cent of the electricity generated in 2000, and is forecast to consume 26.5 per cent in 2020.” According to the report, the big user is, and will continue to be, the Asia/Pacific region, which accounted for 21 per cent of demand in 1990 and 28 percent in 2000, and will represent 35 per cent of world demand in 2020.
Of the 7550 machines projected to be manufactured during the next ten years, machines of 125 MW and larger should account for more than 30 per cent of unit production and over 70 per cent of value of production.