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Europe’s supply system secure for now

28 January 2005 -Western and Central Europe have no serious security of supply transmission concerns in the near future, according to the latest System Adequacy Forecast from the Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE).

However, the forecast warned that the current transmission system is not being used to its full potential due to bottlenecks.

The UCTE report shows that the system as a whole is expected to stay at an acceptable level until 2007 as development of substantial generation capacity is expected. However, if this security level is to be maintained past 2010, then a further 30 GW will have to be created to rectify a potential deficit in generation.

Most of the further generation capacity will have to be created in South East Europe by 2010 or else more emphasis will be placed on power exchanges, according to the System Adequacy Forecast. This will result in a problem as a decreased security margin in countries known traditionally for exporting power may mean that they are no longer be in a position to do so. This is likely to be dependent on the introduction of new environmental legislation.

UCTE predict that the growth of green generation will mean that transmission networks will need significant investment. In particular countries that have a high share of renewable energy in their generation mix, such as Spain and Germany.