The Utility MACT and Boiler MACT rules are adding to what many in the power industry are predicting to be a cataclysmic “train wreck” driven by the seemingly unstoppable conductor that is the EPA.

In case you’ve been snoozing in your sleeper car, allow me to update you on the basics of the rules. The Utility MACT is slated to limit mercury emissions at coal-fired power plants for the first time in history, while also curtailing a number of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). The Boiler MACT rule is set to limit boiler emissions on boilers constructed after June 2010.

In collaboration with the Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), coal ash handling rules, and potential greenhouse gas regulations, will these MACT rules derail utilities, or will industry be able to stay right on track without any risks in electric reliability?

Richard Alonso, partner at Bracewell and Giuliani, says that if the “train wreck” does occur, it will happen in the 2014 to 2016 time frame. At this time, CSAPR will likely be “full steam ahead”, and the Utility MACT rule will be going into effect.

Alonso said the wild card in Utility MACT is trona injection, an additive that is injected in duct work to reduce acid gas emissions. “EPA suggests that that technology will result in a 90 percent reduction of acid gas. Folks in the industry are saying it’s more like 30 percent,” Alonso said.

If trona injection is truly as effective as EPA has asserted, then Utility MACT may not be as big of an issue for many utilities, Alonso said.

Meanwhile, environmental groups and a few others praise the MACT rules, touting that the rules will create jobs and ultimately position the for a cleaner energy future. One report conducted by Ceres in collaboration with the Institute of Clean Air Companies (ICAC) found that Utility MACT and CSAPR could create as many as 1.5 million jobs.

Some, like John Hanger, president and CEO of Hanger Consulting LLC, have not jumped aboard the “train wreck” notion. “EPA is moving forward in a responsible manner and has adjusted as necessary,” he said.

Hanger noted that there have been about 15 reliability studies released from various companies and research groups. The studies predict that anywhere from 10,000 to 80,000 MW of coal-fired power plants will need to be retired from 2014 to 2016.

However, Hanger said, “Fifty-five gigawatts is currently proposed to be built by 2013.”

If all of that proposed generation is indeed built by 2013, then it’s likely that the power industry should be prepared to comply with all of the regulations coming down the tracks. The Utility MACT rule is set to be finalized in mid-December, and the Boiler MACT rule is expected to be finalized in April of 2012.

Until the rules are finalized, utilities are playing the waiting game to see what the final rules will say before deciding whether to retire or retrofit certain plants. If trona injection is indeed a powerful control method, it’s likely that many plants will only be required to retire their oldest plants (40 years and older) that are virtually unscrubbed.