I enjoyed your article “A Different Kind of Boom” (Power Engineering, October 2007, pictured at right). I agree with your conclusions.
In recent work we have been doing we are forecasting a U.S. market of 6 to 8 GW per year of GTCC capacity in North America over the next 5 years, likely starting out on the lower side and increasing. This is up significantly from forecasts of a year ago or so and with further delays and cancellations of coal plants and the long time it will take to bring any nuclear capacity on line (if we ever can) may mean more.
The world market is also strong, with orders approaching 40 GW per year. This may be slighly lower than last year, but as a trend is up over the past 5 year average. Emerging markets of Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union countries, including Russia, have the potential to be very good markets in the next few years - kind of a wild card that is out there.
All this is good for manufactures over the next few years, but will likely drive up prices for generators or at least sustain attractive pricing and margins.
David J. Walls , Director, Energy Practice
Navigant Consulting
Burlington, Mass.
I enjoyed your update on the nuclear industry (Power Engineering, September 2007). It evoked a lot of memories as you talked about people and companies with whom I’ve worked over the years. Although I’ve spent most of my career as a shipbuilder with occasional ventures into the commercial nuclear business, I teach nuclear engineering technology courses for Old Dominion University in a program I helped develop, and have worked several DOE projects on nuclear fuel for the shipyard. I can relate to the problem of finding good engineers.
As you point out the nuclear renaissance is far from an immediate certainty, and it’s hard to sell young engineering students on going into that field. Even the nuclear-trained sailors often go into other fields or will take any Bachelor of Science degree program they can to meet the requirements for an officer’s commission. I haven’t had a single student in my reactor physics class in almost four semesters.
I also can relate to the dilemma nuclear vendors face with long-lead time material. I don’t see the supply chain waking up again without a huge jump start from the government.
Mike Cohen
Senior Contract Administrator
Northrop Grumman Newport News