The global wind industry will install more than 46 GW of new wind energy capacity in 2012, according to a five-year industry forecast published April 17 by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) at the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) 2012 Conference in Copenhagen. By the end of 2016, total global wind power capacity will be just under 500 GW, with an annual market in that year of about 60 GW.
Overall, GWEC projects average annual market growth rates of about 8 percent for the next five years, but with a strong 2012 and a substantial dip in 2013. Total installations for the 2012-2016 period are expected to reach 255 GW, with cumulative market growth averaging just under 16 percent.
“For the next five years, annual market growth will be driven primarily by India and Brazil, with significant contributions from new markets in Latin America, Africa and Asia,” said Steve Sawyer, GWEC Secretary General. “While the market continues to diversify across all continents, it is at the same time plagued by continued slow economic growth and budget crises in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), as well as the continuing credit crunch.”
For the second year running, the majority of new installations were outside the OECD.
GWEC expects the North American market to have a strong 2012, as both Canada and Mexico will install well over 1,000 MW to complement what is expected to be a strong year in the US, which began the year with more than 8 GW under construction. It now seems unlikely that the reauthorization of the federal Production Tax Credit will happen in time to have a major impact on the 2013 market, so a substantial drop is expected in 2013 in the U.S. market, while Canada and Mexico remain strong. Overall, just over 50 GW is expected to be installed in North America from 2012-2016, bringing total installed capacity to just over 100 GW at the end of the period.
The Latin American market is dominated by Brazil, now becoming established as a major international market with a strong manufacturing base that could supply a growing regional market in the Southern Cone, at least, and will constitute the vast majority of the regional growth in the period out to 2016.
To download the full report, visit the GWEC website here.
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