27 May 2010-- The Energy Information Administration said world marketed energy use is expected to grow 49 percent between 2007 and 2035, driven by economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the International Energy Outlook 2010 Reference case.
Total marketed energy consumption decreased by 1.2 percent in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2 percent in 2009 as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services also declined. In the Reference case, total world energy use increases 49 percent, from 495 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035.
China and India are among the nations least impacted by the recession. In 2007, China and India combined accounted for about 20 percent of total wind energy use. Their combined wind energy use more than doubles by 2035 with help from strong economic growth. In contrast, the projected U.S. share of world energy consumption declines from 21 percent in 2007 to about 16 percent in 2035.
Average world oil prices increased from 2003 to mid-July 2008 and then declined through the rest of 2008. In 2009, prices began to increase and the trend continues in the Reference case, with prices increasing to $108 per barrel by 2020 (in real 2008 dollars) and $133 per barrel by 2035. Total liquid fuels consumption projected for 2035 is 28 percent per day higher than the 2007 level of 86.1 million barrels per day. Conventional oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contribute 11.5 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquid fuels production, and supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 4.8 million barrels per day.
In the Reference case for the report, total world energy use increases by an average annual 1.4 percent from 2007 to 2035. Petroleum and other liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected higher oil prices decreases their share of total energy use from 35 percent in 2007 to 30 percent in 2035.
Global natural gas consumption increases from 108 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. Supplies of tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane increase in the Reference case especially from the U.S., Canada and China.
Without any new policies or binding international agreements to limit the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 206 quadrillion Btu in 2035.
Net electricity generation globally increases by 87 percent in 2035. Renewables will be the fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3 percent per year in the Reference case, followed by coal-fired generation, which increases by 2.3 percent annually.
The Reference case also said that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions increase from 29.7 billion metric tons in 2007 to 42.4 billion metric tons in 2035, an increase of 43 percent. Much of the increase is projected to come from the developing nations, especially Asia.
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